Market operation lithium resource stocks can be a little excessive, but which reflects the new energy automotive industry long-term trend for the better. Through the new energy automotive industry chain re-comb, hoping to find the next lithium mine resources.
Simply put, the new energy automotive industry chain is comprised of a total of five parts on the middle and lower reaches upstream of resource-based and professional materials in two parts, wherein the resource type There are two main resources of lithium and rare earth resources, professional-type material is divided into battery separators , anode material, electrolyte, and electro-magnetic material; the middle reaches of the processing and manufacturing sectors, is also divided into two parts, one part is the processing part of the package batteries, motors, electronic control and other parts, the other part of the new energy vehicle assembly depot ; downstream part of consumers, including individuals, companies, dealers and government. Downstream there is a charging device, consumers should correspond to operators. Break it down:
1) lithium resources. Lithium resources in the upper reaches of lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices have soared due to capacity expansion cycle is generally 1-2 years, there will be the fastest growing market is expected by the end of new capacity investment, so the lithium carbonate prices likely to stay high level. And lithium hexafluorophosphate as the main raw material of the electrolyte 2015, although its price has risen by over 300 times, but with three yuan to promote the use of lithium batteries, the price is still likely to rise in the future. But on the secondary market gains related to the subject has been too high, relatively low-risk returns.
2) the diaphragm. Cangzhou Mingzhu, represented by a diaphragm leading shares recently started pre-adjustment bull market high point so that the membrane instead of the more recent lithium battery market, the new hot spot. In the lithium battery separator although only 10% -20% of the cost of lithium battery materials, but the highest technical barriers in all lithium material. Membrane technology can be divided into two kinds of wet and dry, which is currently the dry membrane manufacturer main process, but in the long perspective, wet industry will be the future direction of the evolution of technology. 2015, domestic shipments of about Wet separator 176 million square meters, with the next three yuan battery peatlands, wet separator supply gap will be even greater. This point of view, the diaphragm is likely to become, after the birth of the upstream lithium material and a large bull stock fields.
3) battery. Battery plates need to focus on three yuan lithium cells and batteries PACK and battery management system (BMS). The current mainstream market in the lithium iron phosphate batteries, but compared to the lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary lithium battery has a high energy density characteristics, is important for the future direction of development of battery power. Three yuan lithium batteries are used in passenger cars and vehicles in the area of logistics, pure electric passenger vehicles in 2015 total sales of 152,000, the highest year on year growth in all models. At present, BYD, Zotye and other large OEMs have begun a new energy directed triple lithium inclined more and more clear development prospects. Referring to speculation path of lithium, cobalt upstream resources, the resources of nickel, manganese resources and so will be the first to benefit.
PACK battery and battery management system (BMS) is a high technical requirements in the field, in addition to A shares of the business specializing in the subject is very scarce, as long as the listed companies involved in the field, can be favored by the funds. Dawn acquisition of shares domestic BMS billion to leading electronics (about 30% market share, ranking first), the share price less than a month will appear doubled; Jian Rui fire acquisitions of domestic battery OPTIMUM PACK leader, even if the stock price at a high level five are still being pulled out daily limit chart. The probability of these two areas for future dark horse appears high.
4) motors. Motor should be the new energy vehicles in both the low and battery, but not as good investment opportunities in motor lithium battery is good, mainly due to large OEMs current strength of technology, mostly in the motor distribution. From the secondary market point of view, regardless of the underlying stocks in the performance or on the share price performance is not really good. Future opportunities may be more on the upstream material NdFeB.
5) charging pile. 2015, domestic new energy vehicle sales 330,000, but by the end of 2015 only 3600 domestic charging station, charging pile less than 50 000, this country this year to force charge pile construction, based on publicly available data Pacific Securities, a quarter of new Block 2000 built charging stations, charging pile 90000, the entire market is showing a trend of accelerated, by 2020 the country will build 4.8 million charge pile, market size reached $ 100 billion related to the subject will significantly benefit from the growth of the industry.
6) car companies. New energy automobile companies, one branch of particular concern is the bus. Four new energy bus from the annual reports of listed companies, the sales of new energy bus did show good, practical good support, while accounts receivable are doubling, future performance is guaranteed. Moreover, due to the impact of the automobile manufacturing industry valuation, the valuation of new energy bus companies are currently low share price does not fully reflect the future growth, long-term investors is an area worthy of attention.